Preseason Rankings
Central Florida
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#55
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.4#328
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 8.7% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 7.4% 8.7% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 14.9% 8.7% 2.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.6% 51.4% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.5% 43.2% 22.8%
Average Seed 8.0 7.8 8.7
.500 or above 89.1% 92.4% 77.6%
.500 or above in Conference 80.2% 82.6% 71.6%
Conference Champion 16.1% 18.0% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Four6.1% 6.5% 4.9%
First Round43.5% 48.1% 27.1%
Second Round22.5% 25.3% 12.3%
Sweet Sixteen8.9% 10.2% 4.2%
Elite Eight3.4% 4.0% 1.5%
Final Four1.3% 1.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 78.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.8 - 2.30.8 - 2.3
Quad 1b1.4 - 2.02.1 - 4.4
Quad 23.9 - 2.96.0 - 7.3
Quad 36.9 - 2.212.9 - 9.5
Quad 47.0 - 0.619.9 - 10.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 110   Rider W 74-69 78%    
  Nov 11, 2018 266   Florida Atlantic W 72-57 95%    
  Nov 15, 2018 143   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-62 75%    
  Nov 16, 2018 106   Saint Joseph's W 69-64 67%    
  Nov 18, 2018 60   Western Kentucky W 69-68 51%    
  Nov 24, 2018 128   Northern Kentucky W 69-63 80%    
  Nov 29, 2018 39   Alabama L 65-66 55%    
  Dec 02, 2018 51   @ Missouri L 63-64 37%    
  Dec 08, 2018 296   Grambling St. W 75-59 95%    
  Dec 11, 2018 148   Georgia Southern W 71-63 82%    
  Dec 16, 2018 337   Stetson W 77-56 98%    
  Dec 21, 2018 75   Illinois St. W 68-66 68%    
  Jan 02, 2019 72   Temple W 66-64 66%    
  Jan 05, 2019 96   @ Connecticut W 67-63 54%    
  Jan 13, 2019 290   East Carolina W 74-58 95%    
  Jan 16, 2019 81   @ Wichita St. W 69-66 50%    
  Jan 19, 2019 98   Tulsa W 68-64 74%    
  Jan 23, 2019 195   @ Tulane W 73-62 75%    
  Jan 27, 2019 101   @ Memphis W 68-63 56%    
  Jan 31, 2019 96   Connecticut W 67-63 72%    
  Feb 07, 2019 37   Houston L 65-67 54%    
  Feb 10, 2019 56   @ SMU W 63-62 40%    
  Feb 13, 2019 250   South Florida W 69-55 92%    
  Feb 16, 2019 101   Memphis W 68-63 74%    
  Feb 21, 2019 36   @ Cincinnati L 59-61 35%    
  Feb 24, 2019 56   SMU W 63-62 60%    
  Feb 27, 2019 250   @ South Florida W 69-55 82%    
  Mar 02, 2019 37   @ Houston L 65-67 34%    
  Mar 07, 2019 36   Cincinnati L 59-61 53%    
  Mar 09, 2019 72   @ Temple W 66-64 46%    
Projected Record 19.9 - 10.1 11.1 - 6.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.8 3.7 1.8 0.5 16.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.4 5.0 1.8 0.2 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.1 4.0 1.0 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 5.4 4.2 0.7 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.8 3.7 0.7 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.3 0.8 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.9 0.8 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.6 5.2 7.3 9.3 11.1 12.3 13.5 11.4 9.7 6.6 3.9 1.8 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.1
16-2 94.9% 3.7    3.3 0.5 0.0
15-3 72.7% 4.8    3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.9% 3.7    1.4 1.6 0.7 0.0
13-5 11.9% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 10.2 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 57.5% 42.5% 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 48.5% 51.5% 2.8 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 3.9% 100.0% 35.9% 64.1% 3.9 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.6% 98.2% 28.4% 69.8% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.5%
14-4 9.7% 91.7% 23.0% 68.7% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 89.2%
13-5 11.4% 77.0% 17.0% 60.1% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.6 72.4%
12-6 13.5% 59.3% 12.4% 46.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.5 53.6%
11-7 12.3% 34.9% 9.0% 25.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.0 28.5%
10-8 11.1% 20.3% 6.2% 14.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.9 15.1%
9-9 9.3% 9.8% 5.6% 4.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 4.5%
8-10 7.3% 4.7% 3.9% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.8%
7-11 5.2% 3.1% 2.9% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.3%
6-12 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
5-13 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 46.6% 13.2% 33.4% 8.0 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.2 3.9 4.5 5.6 6.4 7.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 53.4 38.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 56.2 30.6 13.2